UKIP Philosophy: A Clash of Views. Dr Anthony Fallone
We are still under ten years old as an organization and even less as something that could be called a functioning political party. It follows that there are strongly differing views about how we should function. Essentially, there are two ways to run a political party:
1) The commands come down from the central office or charismatic leader and the foot soldiers obey with very little possibility of objection, adjustment or even prior consultation.
2) The decision-making is democratic and allows consultation with the foot soldiers before anything is decided; communication flows freely in both directions at all times.
Obviously these are the two ends of a continuum of ways to organize and run a party; they could be exemplified by the older, Thatcher-era Tory party (1) and the more collegiate and referenda-minded Liberal Democrats (2). An even better example is the difference between the systems and organizations of government to be found today in France (1) and Germany (2).
A more abstract and theoretical view of the differences between 1 and 2 is that of ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ processing. These terms are used in neuroscience, cognitive neuroscience and cognitive psychology to describe flow of information in processing. A bottom-up process is usually thought of as without higher-level direction, whereas the top-down process has a high level of direction by more cognition, providing goals and targets.
Top Down
‘Top down’ is stereotypical of the visionary, the person seeing the larger picture, the overview, focusing on the big picture and gathering from that the details to support it: ‘seeing the wood’. The party leadership makes a decision. Using their authority, this approach is passed on to lower levels in the hierarchy who owe allegiance to them. Top-down approaches can be viewed positively due to their efficiency and higher-level overview. Alternately, they can be seen negatively if changes, reforms or demands are seen to be imposed ‘from above’; it can be difficult for lower levels to accept them (e.g., Bresser Pereira, Maravall, and Przeworski, 1993). This seems to hold true whatever the change (e.g., Dubois, 2002). The French government uses a top-down approach: public servants have no other task than to carry out decisions given to them by their superiors. The cabinet gives advice and consultation to these superiors that is different and separate from that of the regular ministry staff. Those not members of the cabinet have no right to make any suggestions or to take any political or policy decisions. This seems to resemble the de facto running of Blair’s ‘sofa government’. The grassroots feel disenfranchised and excluded, even demotivated because no one higher is much interested in their expertise, thoughts, ideas or projects. UKIP at the moment tends to work more like the French government, decisions being made at a high level and demanding and expecting that the grassroots should obey, without question, tout de suite.
Bottom Up
‘Bottom up’ focuses on detail, not the landscape: ‘seeing the trees’. This approach is one that works from the grassroots, a large number of activists working together from whom decisions emerge due to their joint involvement. For activists in the lower echelons of a party the bottom-up approach allows for more trial and error work and a better feeling for what they need. If UKIP were a bottom-up organized political party decisions would be prepared by experts (those knowledgeable about local matters or trained to deal with specific technical matters), defining, out of their expertise, the policy or project thought necessary. If the grassroots cannot agree or find compromise, the problem or idea would be taken to the next higher hierarchical level for a decision. Finally, the executive of the party would take the decision. Information always moves upwards from the inferior to the superior. As soon as the grassroots agree on some project, policy, idea or solution to a problem, the head of the party only needs to provide his or her “face″ as the authorisation for action to be taken by them.
The German political system stands out as operating on bottom-up principles. There is a Federal Act on Public Service that insists that any inferiors consult and support their superiors. They must follow only “general guidelines" from their superiors, while remaining fully responsible for their own acts while in office. Formal complaints procedures must be followed if the legality of an order is in doubt. German politicians have often left office when it was alleged that they took wrong decisions while refusing the advice of the expert opinions of inferiors (beratungsresistent). If UKIP wanted to change its way of doing things to bottom up then the German one is a good model. Germany has bitter experience of two dictatorships, fuelling calls for the principle of personal responsibility for decisions made. This has led to the bolstering of the bottom-up approach, requiring maximum responsibility from those in a superior position. Hitler may have built marvellous autobahns and Mussolini made the Italian trains run on time but both were wholly irresponsible about where they led their respective countries; neither would ever listen to ‘the little people’, a psychologically illuminating phrase used recently by the man running BP.
UKIP History and Leaders
After reading ‘Cranks and Gadflies’ by Mark Daniel (2005) it is clear that UKIP members are judged to be more eccentric, individualistic and plain ornery than the members of other political parties. They are obviously highly receptive to a bottom up organisation and will never take kindly to a top down one. And yet, time after time, they seem to choose charismatic, dictatorial, egotistic leaders; Kilroy is perhaps the most notorious but Nigel Farage is another charismatic, who inspires adulation in his followers. Earlier leaders have been almost as egotistical and media loving as Kilroy. UKIP seems to lust after the ‘Strong Leader’, the Moses who will lead them out of the wilderness and into positions of power. The local branches of the party submitted to a total stripping of their financial assets for a recent election, on the orders of Nigel Farage, to help raise the £2,000,000 to fund the campaign. This meekly endured plundering would not have been possible if anyone other than Nigel had asked. And yet I have been a witness to furious wrangling over a few hundred pounds at local level, it being required by a body a step or two higher up the hierarchy. The reason why such anger and table banging occurred was that there had been no consultation and the local branch had not had a chance to participate in decisions. In the interests of speed and efficiency the decisions had been made at the higher level and the costs were to be extracted from the funds of the local branch, without prior notice. Given the nature of the typical grassroots UKIP member this was bound to cause trouble.
Conclusion
Although the official leadership has changed, photographs of Nigel still form the covers of the party magazines and other publications. Lord Pearson is the new leader, assisted by Lord Monckton and Lord Willoughby De Broke; we still like noble individuals to whom we can look up, it seems. It is highly likely that the grassroots would follow such exalted leaders, obey without question whatever they order as long as we believe that they will help us find the political Promised Land. It is in the middle cadres of the hierarchy, however, that perhaps there is a disconnect. Casual arrogance coming from there will always cause anger and resentment because we are not the French, who are used to such behaviour in their masters. Still less, UKIP is not a happy breeding place for the top down, pseudo-military giving of orders that must be obeyed. Volunteers who are money donors, too, never react well to being ordered about like minions in a large corporation, salary slaves who have to do what they are told for fear of losing their jobs. Throughout the organisation there seems to be a lack of communication, the up and down flow of information, the timely inclusion of the grassroots in decisions and projects in which they will be expected to have a part, including giving financial support. Perhaps it is time for the Great and Wise to consider just what sort of political party this is going to be, a Type 1 or a Type 2? If we shamble on as we are then inevitably there will be schisms and splinter groups as has happened in the past (recorded in Mark Daniel’s book) with the grassroots becoming increasingly alienated.
References:
1. Bresser Pereira, Luiz Carlos, José María Maravall, and Adam Przeworski, 1993. Economic reforms in new democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2. Dubois, Hans F.W. 2002. Harmonization of the European vaccination policy and the role TQM and reengineering could play. Quality Management in Health Care 10(2): 47-57.
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top-down_and_bottom-up_design
4. Cranks and Gadflies: The Story of UKIP (2005). Daniel, M. Timewell Press; London
Wednesday, 11 August 2010
Are Blonds/Blondes Dumb? A paper I had hanging around I never did try to publish.
EYE COLOUR AND HEMISPHERICITY Dr Anthony Fallone
The present study derives substantially from part of a Ph.D. thesis of the author submitted to the University of Edinburgh. The author is grateful to Professor Colwyn Trevarthen for supervising the project; thanks are due, too, to the students whose efforts have made this particular study possible.
Summary
Gordon's Cognitive Laterality Battery (1986) was used to test the hypothesis that light-eyed individuals are less cognitively able than the dark-eyed, following the theories of Gary and Glover (1976) and more recent reaction time studies (Fallone, 1993). The hypothesis was supported: in this sample light-eyed University students were significantly ( p<. 02) less able than dark-eyed students on a battery of cognitive tests. If eye colour is a hitherto largely unconsidered but significant variable in cognitive testing this casts some doubt on previous research which has disregarded such a potentially influential confounding characteristic. Introduction Worthy (1974) claimed that light-eyed people are more sensitive to form, while the dark-eyed respond more to colour; Gary and Glover (1975) tested this, finding that in a series of tasks, the dark-eyed made more form errors than colour errors, the light-eyed performing conversely. In tasks which measured ability in paper and pencil work, play, and dexterity, dark-eyed individuals scored more highly than light-eyed individuals, although no difference was found in the areas of number work and gross motor skills. Light-eyed, light-haired, and fair-skinned individuals seem more susceptible to hypoglycaemia (Gary and Glover, 1976). Happy and Collins (1972) are cited by Gary and Glover (1976) as having theorised that there is a link between autism and light eye and hair colour in Caucasians: lack of melanin may leave nerve cells in the ascending reticular activating system less protected, sometimes causing a defect in noradrenergic pathways which could bring about autistic symptoms. They found that there was an over-representation of relatively low pigmented children with autism in their sample, a significant ( p<.05) difference by comparison with dark children with autism, something noted earlier by Kastein (1966). Gary and Glover conducted a study into the possibility of being able to predict learning disability from eye colour; their experiment had an N of 5,552 males and 4,012 females identified as having learning disabilities. Their conclusions were that the dark-eyed seemed less likely to be learning disabled, regardless of their sex, and that light-eyed individuals were more likely to be learning disabled, especially if they were male. The same study found that the light-eyed are much more likely to suffer diagnosed medical conditions and have various physical anomalies, the ratio being 30 to1. Those individuals low in pigmentation are therefore 30 times more likely than the highly pigmented to suffer heart, endocrine, and central nervous system disorders, and in addition are more likely to be unusually obese, thin, short, tall, or have premature or delayed secondary sexual characteristics. The sample was Caucasian because including non-Caucasians would grossly bias the findings, essentially nullifying the research. As eye colour is such an easily seen physical trait it has an obvious attraction for researchers; pulse rate, pulse pressure, respiration rate, galvanic skin response and body temperature are some of the physiological variants found with eye colour (Kent, 1956a; Markle, 1976), together with magnitude of pupillary dilation (Gambill, Ogle, Kearns, 1967), oculocardiac reflex (Fry, Hall-Parker, 1978) and resistance to the damaging effects of industrial noise (McFadden, Wightman, 1983). Usually, it is the light-eyed individual who is found to suffer by comparison with the dark-eyed, e.g., blue-eyed people have lower tactile thresholds on the cornea, and report more pain from wearing contact lenses, than do people with brown eyes (Millodot, 1975; Tota, La Marca, 1982). Certain pathologies are more associated with light-eyed people: malignant melanoma are more likely to be developed by light-eyed, light-haired individuals (Gellin, Kopf, Garfinkel, 1969), while patients with light coloured irises are more likely to suffer from Idiopathic Dystonic Syndromes, involuntary movements of the sort found in Huntington's and Parkinson's disease (Korein, 1981). Neural Crest Syndrome is characterised by autonomic dysfunction manifested in pupil abnormalities and pain perception and by the absence of sweating; all reported cases are blond, blue-eyed and fair-skinned (Brown, Podosin, 1966). Sufferers from phenylketonuria are frequently light-eyed (Berg, Stern, 1958). Prader-Willi syndrome has been recognised as marked by light coloured hair and eyes (Creel, Bendel, Wiesner, Wirtschafter, Arthur, King, 1986). Bassett and Dabbs (2001) looked at consumption of alcohol in light- and dark-eyed individuals (10,860 males and 1,862 females, all Caucasian), finding that light eyes consumed significantly more alcohol than dark eyes. It appears that light eye colour, among all the other disorders listed above, is associated with learning disability, dyslexia and autism, where left hemisphere abilities are poor; if that is so, those individuals who do not necessarily suffer the most extreme effects of hypo-pigmentation may, nevertheless, demonstrate reduced left hemisphere cognitive functions, relative to the dark-eyed and dark-haired.
Hypotheses
(1) University students with light eyes will score significantly less well over all cognitive tests than students with dark eyes;
(2) University students with light eyes will manifest a significant right-hemisphere cognitive profile (CLQ).
Method
Gordon's Cognitive Laterality Battery
Harold Gordon (1986) devised an eight test Cognitive Laterality Battery (CLB) providing a cognitive profile, normed against a large sample. 75% of the adult norms were from University students, with more postgraduates than undergraduates. 25% were non-student subjects, increasing the variability of the sample. Estimates based on comparing the population means to maximum scores made Serial Sounds and Orientation-3d as the most difficult of the sub-tests, with the verbal fluency and Form Completion tests next. Nevertheless, the sub-tests of the CLB were chosen from long-used neuropsychological or psychometric instruments. These were known to be adversely affected by brain damage in one or the other cerebral hemispheres. For example, performance on the Form Completion sub-test was well known to be poor after right hemisphere insults. The assumptions on which the CLB was based are that activity in the neurosystem related to Appositionality is more distributed to or active in the right hemisphere, with the Propositional neurosystem more distributed to or active in the left, with precise anatomical locations remaining unfixed.
The Sub-tests
a) Serial Sounds. Subjects listen to sounds played from an audio tape such as a dog barking, horse neighing, bugle blowing, and doorbell ringing in sequences which gradually increase in number of sounds; the task is to remember their order and write it down correctly.
b) Serial Numbers. Numbers are spoken on audiotape in sequences that lengthen from three to a maximum of nine and then decrease to 6; the task is to write down the correct sequences of numbers; it resembles the Wechsler digit span test.
c) Word Production-Letters. Subjects are asked to write down as many words as possible in one minute. Scoring is a simple total of all words that are not proper names or different tenses from three trials starting with three different letters.
d) Word Production-Categories. A category is stated (e.g., flowers) and once more it is the number of words in that category produced within one minute that is scored. Two categories are given, the score being the total for both categories.
e) Localisation. 24 Small crosses are displayed in a rectangular frame on a projection screen for three seconds; subjects are required to mark equivalent answer blank rectangles where they thought they saw the crosses. Scoring is the total millimetre error deviation from the correct positions.
f) Orientation-3d. 24 three-dimensional S-shaped constructions of 10 stacked cubes are presented on a screen in sets of three; the task is to mentally reorientate the shapes in order to find out which two are the same. The third is a mirror image which can never be the same as the other two. (Shepherd and Metzler, 1971)
g) Form Completion (Gestalt closure). Partially erased white on blue silhouette drawings of common objects are projected on a screen; the subjects must use their imaginations to decide what is represented, writing this down in a word or two (Thurstone and Jeffrey, 1966).
h) Touching Blocks. Drawings of stacks of 7-10 stacked rectangular blocks are projected on a screen for 45 seconds each; for each stimulus slide five of the rectangular blocks are numbered; the blocks are stacked in such a way that two to eight blocks may be touching any numbered block. The task is to count up the touching blocks above, below, and on each side of the numbered blocks (MacQuarrie, 1953).
A Propositional score is derived from the four Verbal-sequential tests, and an Appositional one from the Visual-spatial sub-tests; the Propositional score is then taken away from the Appositional, leaving a "Right-hemisphere profile", the extent to which the individual appears to be more able visual-spatially. The profile so derived is called a "CLQ", or Cognitive Laterality Quotient. Finally, the scores overall are added together and divided by the number of sub-tests in order to give a measure of cognitive ability, the "CPQ", or Cognitive Performance Quotient. This is similar to a score in intelligence, although the CLB does not measure everything measured in IQ tests. Many of Gordon's sub-tests are derived from IQ tests; however, he is very clear that he intends them to be used in a neuropsychological context, deriving their reason for use from clinical studies of brain lesions and pathologies.
Nonetheless, some of Cattell's primary factors are tested by Gordon's CLB (all descriptions of the Cattell primary factors taken from Kline, 1991):
"W"=Word fluency, the rapid production of words, without semantic connection but conforming to an initial letter requirement (found by Cattell in 1933, and used ever since in IQ tests); "V"=understanding words or ideas; it is likely that this plays a great part in successful performance on the "Word Production-Categories" sub-test, with some aid from "W", and from Fl, or "ideational fluency". "V" is supposed to be the most reliable indicator of "crystallised intelligence".
"Ms"=span memory, the short-term recall of digits or letters, as used in the Wechsler IQ tests. It is uncertain if the recall of series of sounds taps the same memory.
"S"=spatial factor; the ability to visualise two- or three-dimensional objects when their orientation is changed. The 3d Spatial Rotation-Orientation sub-test clearly fits this factor.
"Cs"=speed of closure factor; this apparently taps the ability to quickly complete a gestalt when parts of the stimulus are missing. Interestingly, speed of visual closure correlates 0.610 with word fluency.
It may then be possible to predict that Form Completion, the Gestalt sub-test, will load quite strongly on any verbal-sequential Factor in a Factor Analysis of these research results. Kline (1991) states that verbal ability is highly loaded on intelligence tests, especially those used for selection to Universities and schools. He says that people in the arts are usually high on this factor, although it should not be confused with intelligence as such, because many scientists are relatively weak in verbal ability. Second order ability factors have been derived from the intercorrelations of the first order factors: "gf"=fluid intelligence, which includes memory span, flexibility of closure and intellectual speed, tested in the CLB by the two sequential memory sub-tests and the Gestalt Form Completion sub-test, together with the overall fast timing of the whole battery.
"gc"=crystallised intelligence, tested by the verbal fluency tests.
"Pv"=Visualisation, tested by the Orientation, Touching Blocks, and Localisation sub-tests. "gr"=Retrieval capacity or general fluency, ideational and associational fluency which may well play a strong part in scoring well on the Word Production-Categories sub-test.
"gf"=Cognitive speed factor, something which, again, the overall fast timing of the CLB tests.
These five factors, says Kline, embrace most of the variance in human ability. Clearly, the family resemblance, although not identical, is close between an IQ test and the CLB. A transformation procedure is possible to derive IQ equivalents from the CLB Z-scores, with 0 equalling 100 on the IQ scores, and +3 (3 Standard Deviations for an IQ test) equalling approximately an IQ of 148, -3 an IQ of approximately 60 or 70, although this can only be a very approximate measure. The literature certainly seems to suggest that at least the CPQ could be predictive of IQ. Eye Colour Eye colour in the form of intensity of iris pigmentation was noted in the student sample, with the demarcating midway point between the classification of 'Light' and 'Dark' that of hazel eyes, the lighter and darker varieties of these falling on either side of the category line; green was put into the darker category and light grey into the lighter category. Actual colour tended to be ignored, with very dark blue eyes classified in the "Dark' category, while pale brown eyes fell into the 'Light' category (It had been decided that a fault with some previous work was that the eye colour classification used bore little relationship to this intensity of pigmentation).
The Experiment
Participants
Mixed-sex groups of Edinburgh University students (N=109) aged between 17 to 50 years were tested with the CLB. The CLB takes between 70 and 80 minutes to administer. The order of testing is: 1) Serial Sounds; 2) Localisation; 3) Serial Numbers; 4) Orientation; 5) Word Production-Letters; 6) Word Production-Categories; 7) Form Completion; 8) Touching Blocks.
Results
Eye Colour
An analysis of variance was carried out; there were significant differences overall (F1,108=6.327 p<. 02). To analyse these in greater detail, t-tests were conducted. Significant differences between eye colours were found in the Serial Numbers (df=109; t-value=2.639; p<.005) and Word Production-Categories (df=109; t-value=3.299; p<.001) sub-tests. The Propositional (df=109; t-value=2.760; p<.005) and Appositional sub-totals (df=109; t-value=1.741; p< .05) were both significant, all showing the dark-eyes superiority. Of the supposed right hemisphere sub-tests only Touching Blocks was significant, like the others showing the light-eyed to be less able (df=109; t-value=2.116; p<.02). The major effect was in the Propositional area, which indicated that light-eyed individuals were generally less able on verbal-sequential tasks than dark-eyed individuals. There were no sub-tests where the light-eyed outscored the dark-eyed. Eye Colour-High/Low CPQ Groups Scores The middle order scores on the overall performance measure, the Cognitive Performance Quotient (CPQ), were removed, leaving a ‘top 30’ and a ‘bottom 30’. A Chi-Square test showed that there was an association between eye colour and position in the High/Low 30 of CPQ scores (N=56, df=1, Phi=.372, Chi=6.319, p<.02). 75% of the dark-eyed were to be found in the High 30, while only 37.5% of the light-eyed scored that well. The light-eyed made up 76.9% of the Low 30. There seems to have been a significant clustering of light eyes in the Low and of the dark eyes in the High 30. A One-factor analysis of variance was carried out on the z-score data for these two groups, showing a significant difference between eye colours (F1,54=10.145, p<.005); by comparison with the overall analysis of variance it is clear that dropping out the central corpus of middle range CPQ scores intensified the eye colour difference.
References
Bassett, J. F. and Dabbs, J. M. Jr. (2001). Eye color predicts alcohol use in two archival samples, Personality and Individual Differences, Vol 31 (4), pp. 535-539
Berg, J. M., Stern, J. (1958) Iris color in Phenylketonuria. Annals of Human Genetics, 22, 370-372. Brown, J. W., Podosin, R. (1966) A syndrome of the neural crest. Archives of Neurology, 15, 294-301. Creel, D. J., Bendel, C. M., Wiesner, G. L., Wirtschafter, J. D., Arthur, D. C., King, R. A. (1986) Abnormalities of the central visual pathways in Prader-Willi Syndrome associated with hypopigmentation. The New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 314, No. 25, 1606-1609.
Fallone, A. R., Baluch, B. (1993) Eye colour: an unconsidered variable in cognitive research? Perceptual and Motor Skills , 77, 11123-1127
Fry, E. N. S., Hall-Parker, J. B. (1978) Eye hue and the oculocardiac reflex, British Journal of Opthalmology, 62, 116-117.
Galaburda, A. (16th September, 1989) Paper presented at the Rodin Dyslexia Conference, University of North Wales, Bangor, Wales.
Gambill, H. D., Ogle, K. N., Kearns, T. P. (1967) Mydriatic effect of 4 drugs determined with pupillograph. Archives of Opthalmology, 77, 740-746.
Gary, A.L., Glover, J. (1975) Melanin as a predictor in the acquisition of developmental skills. The Journal of Psychology, 90, 185-190.
Gellin, G. A., Kopf, A. W., Garfinkel, L. (1969) Malignant melanoma: a controlled study of possible associated factors. Archives of Dermatology, Vol. 99, 43-48.
Gordon, H. W. (1986) The Cognitive Laterality Battery: tests of specialised cognitive function. International Journal of Neuroscience, 29, 223-244.
Greiner, A. C., Nicolson, G. A. (1965) Schizophrenia-melanosis. Lancet, ii, 1165.
Happy, R. Collins, J. K. (1972) Melanin in the ascending reticular activating system and its possible relationship to autism. Medical Journal of Australia, 2, 1484-1486.
Kastein, S., Trace, B. (1966) The birth of language: the case history of a non-verbal child, Springfield, Il.: Charles C. Thomas.
Kent, I. (1956a) Human iris pigmentation: 1. a concept of individual reactivity with implications in health and disease. Canadian Psychiatry Association Journal,1, 99-104.
Kline, P., Intelligence: The Psychometric View, London: Routledge, 1991.
Korein, J. (1981) Iris pigmentation
MacQuarrie, T. W. (1953) MacQuarrie Test of Mechanical Ability. Monterey, CA.: California Test Bureau.
Markle, A. (1976) Eye colour and responsiveness to arousing stimuli. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 43, 127-133.
McFadden, D., Wightman, F. (1983) Audition: some relations between normal and pathological hearing, Annual Review of Psychology, 34, 95-128.
Millodot, M. (1975) Do blue-eyed people have more sensitive corneas than brown-eyed people? Nature, 255, 151-152.
Shepherd, R. N., and Metzler, J. (1971) Mental rotation of three-dimensional objects. Science, 171, 701-703.
Thurstone, L. L., and Jeffrey, T. E. Closure Speed. Chicago: Industrial Relations Center.
Tota, G., La Marca, F. (1982) Correlations between corneal sensitivity and iris colour. Atti della Fondazione Giorgio Ronchi, Vol.37 {1}, 59-69.
Worthy, M. (1974) Eye color, sex and race. Anderson, S. C.: Droke House/Hallux
Saturday, 7 August 2010
I thought I would put my Facebook address here for anyone interested:
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=logo#!/anthony.fallone
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=logo#!/anthony.fallone
Friday, 6 August 2010
Physical Characteristics and Political Success.
Height
It has often been remarked on and researched with varying degrees of seriousness that in USA Presidential elections more often than not it is the taller candidate who wins. Obviously in the case of Kerry versus Bush it was the 6’ 4” Kerry who lost but on the whole this rule of thumb holds true. It may be that this tendency has strengthened from the time that TV has played a major part in electioneering. For the UK in the days of Churchill and Attlee smaller men seemed to suffer no disadvantage. The current Labour leader electioneering shows the two Milliband brothers at 5’ 11” each in the lead with the shorter Ed Balls and the even shorter (but cute in a Dudley Moore sort of way) Andy Burnham trailing behind. In the same way that Sarkosy was ill advised to stand next to Obama in a Press shoot, the shorter Labour candidates should avoid standing next to the taller Millibands. In the past, using this rule of (Tom) thumb, one could have predicted failure in 1992 for Neil Kinnock (self-identified as the same height as the 5’ 10” George Clooney), considerably shorter than the 6’+ John Major. David Steel’s political career was, as he noted, substantially damaged by the Spitting Image characterization of him as a sniveling, bed wetting midget tucked into the much taller David Owen’s top pocket. Forget the quality of the politics, just tot up the centimeters.
Hair and Hair Colour
In Neil Kinnock’s case, once he was offered to the opinion of the general public, it was not just lack of height that militated against his success. He is noticeably short of thatch (he would have preferred to be short of Thatcher): since the time of the tonsorially challenged Attlee and Churchill, the bald competing with the bald (rather like looking at Jordan’s neckline), not having hair in a politician has been a negative: William Hague, Michael Howard and Michael Foot had a very poor electoral record. Even when elections are within party, such as for the Liberal democrat leadership, it was the hirsute Nick Clegg who was preferred over the balding Vince Cable. 1990s research found that the proportion of bald men making it to elected office in the US was four times less than the number of follicularly challenged males in the population at large (There have been over 200 years of US Presidents and only 23 of those years had a bald POTUS. When Eisenhower beat Adlai Stevenson, it was probably because Stevenson had even less hair than Ike. When Gerald Ford went up against Jimmy Carter it was the Democratic thatch that beat his Republican dome.
In France the Bald Effect isn’t to be found: Giscard, Mitterand, Alain Juppé and Chirac were all bald. In Russia there appears to be curious turn taking: ‘Bald, hairy, bald, hairy, bald, hairy - that's how we elect our leaders…Think about it: Lenin was bald, Stalin was hairy; Kruschev was bald, Brezhnev was hairy; Gorbachev was bald, Yeltsin was hairy - and Putin is practically bald. Medvedev had to win.’ (Women: Timesonline)
Hair colour probably has an effect on the electability of politicians: poor Neil Kinnock, in addition to his other problems, was also red haired and the record for red heads in British politics is not great. Winston Churchill was red when young but barely noticeable as such by the time he had his one and only party electoral success in 1951. Julia Gillard’s recent success in Australia and Margaret Thatcher’s dominance of the 1980s political scene belong in a separate article to be written on female physical characteristics and political success. Gillard was the second red head to become Australian PM (James Scullin in 1929 was the first) but the 80-year gap indicates the rarity of the event. Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy are gingery Liberal Democrat losers in the UK election stakes. I know Stalin and Lenin and even Trotsky were red headed but it is difficult to see the methods that got them to political success as democratic. If the terrified populace of Russia had been wholly free to vote according to their preferences, as we hope happens now in the Western world, then their success would not have been guaranteed.
Blonds are few and far between: the magnificent blond tresses of Michael Heseltine may have reduced the impressiveness of his 6’ 2” height through doubt about the brainpower of both blonds and blondes. Blondes may have more fun but they are not renowned for intellect. Such doubts might well be thought justified when the most significant political act carried out by blondy Ted Heath was to persuade us to vote to enter the European Common Market (I voted ‘No’-it takes more than fair hair to seduce me…). Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, at 5’ 10” is just about tall enough to command some respect (he manages to look taller in the media) but he is as blond as blond could be and this, together with a certain eccentricity probably serves to reduce his IQ in the minds of voters. He may have risen as high as he is going to go, a disappointment to those who see him as a future Conservative leader. Most research has found that the dark haired are always thought of as more intelligent, more stable, more reliable and more dependable than individuals with other hair colours. French research has shown that the majority of those who have won Nobel prizes were dark haired. My own published research and the degree work of students I have supervised have found a consistent difference between dark haired and dark eyed and light haired and light eyed on reaction times, with the darker pigmented significantly faster. As reaction time is correlated with IQ it can be argued that the darker pigmented individual is also the brighter one. This is a finding that may upset the BNP but it has held up under my testing over many years. In the political arena the dark haired should manifest as more quickly responsive, faster thinking, more aggressive, more extraverted, more focused, although on the debit side more inclined to schizophrenia and drunkenness. I don’t make these claims idly: they derive from the work I did for my Ph.D thesis (see References).
The Successful Leader
So, derived from all of the above, what would our ideal Leader look like? I am specifying a male because I will be writing another paper on the female Leader later. He should be around 6’ 1” or 6’ 2”, have a full head of dark hair and be dark eyed. Curiously, the Conservative party and the Liberal Democrats have both found this ideal type: David Cameron and Nick Clegg hover just over 6’ and look like brothers or at least half-brothers (it isn’t necessary to mention anything to do with Brokeback). Unfortunately, both have quite light blue eyes and more brown than dark hair. This does not bode well for their cognitive skills in tight situations that require a quick reaction. They may well not be the sharpest tools in the box, either, faced with complex situations that require subtlety and tact. I cite Cameron’s recent indiscretions about Palestinian prison camps and Iranian nuclear weapons. Having a highly stressful job and dark hair has disadvantages: it has been noted recently how Cameron has hair which is thinning and swiftly going grey, areas of scalp becoming visible at the rear. This may not happen as swiftly to Nick Clegg, as his job as Deputy Prime Minister is naturally less stressful. Stress reduces male testosterone (which usually has varied and well-known undesirable effects), speeds up graying as the immune system misidentifies hair pigment and attacks it. This could be seen happening to the highly stressed Gordon Brown. Hair falls out faster under stress, as well, as the capillaries feeding hair follicles tighten and close, causing them to die. An alternative recent hypothesis is that the Grecian or Just for Men has been stopped, now that the election is over. I don’t support that one because it is so important to maintain a youthful look, just as much in power as trying to get it. The harvesting of facial hair that went on in the Labour Government under the guidance of Barbara Follett indicates that this was recognised years ago; a moustache is terribly aging, never mind making you look like a 1970s porn star.
So UKIP should ideally have Leader who is a youthful-looking, clean-shaven 6’ +, dark eyed man with a full mop of dark hair. Clearly this is not what we have got. Does such a lack mean we will never have political success under the present leadership? Looking at all the evidence, I would say ‘Yes’. Do not despair; there is still time for the ideal leader to appear, to emerge trailing clouds of glory over the horizon of the future. At least, as I claim here, we have the template into which he must fit to ensure electoral success.
References:
Detterman, D.K., What does reaction time tell us about Intelligence? in Vernon, P.A., {ed.} Speed of Information Processing and Intelligence, New Jersey: Ablex Publishing Company, 1987.
Ellis, H., A Study of British Genius, London: Hurst and Blackett, 1904 (Men of science and painters, sculptors and architects tended to be fair and blue-eyed, whereas men and women of letters and divines tended to be dark).
Fallone, A. R. (1993). Somatic and Psychological Characteristics Associated with Artistic and Mathematical Ability in a University Population; Ph.D Thesis, University of Edinburgh.
Fallone, A. R., Pierce, L., and Bygrave, A. (1997, 6-11th July). Haircolour, Female Stereotypes and Personality: Bimbos , Firecats and Dark Ladies : Labels or Truth? Thematic paper presented by A. R. Fallone to the Fifth European Congress of Psychology, Dublin, Ireland.
Fallone, A.R., and Baluch, B. (1993). Eye Colour: an unconsidered variable in cognitive research? Perceptual and Motor Skills, 77, 1123-1127.
Gary, A.L., and Glover, J., Melanin as a Predictor in the Acquisition of Developmental Skills, The Journal of Psychology, 90: 185-190, 1975.
Hale, B.D., et al, Iris Pigmentation and Fractionated Reaction and Reflex Time, Biological Psychology, 10, pp. 57-67, 1980.
Landers, D.M., Obermeier, G.E., and Patterson, A.H., Iris pigmentation and reactive motor performance, Journal of Motor Behaviour, 8 {3}, 171-179, 1976.
Rosenberg, A., and Kagan, J., Physical and Physiological Correlates of Behavioural Inhibition, Developmental Psychobiology, 22 {8}: 753-770, 1989.
Schacter, S.C., Ransil, B.J., and Geschwind, N., Associations of Handedness with Hair Colour and Learning Disabilities, pp.269-276, Neuropsychologia, Vol.25, No.1b, 1987.
Williams, N., Brain speed link "to intelligence", The Guardian, 19/2/91.
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